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Section: Science Life |
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Discourse on risk: Manuel Eisner on communicating risk "Catastrophes are major, unparalleled events" |
"Many forecasts of catastrophes have the beneficial effect of leading to decisive political action," says sociologist Manuel Eisner. For all that they can also lead to excessive fears. The former ETH researcher talks to ETH Life. Interview: Michael Breu In your book "Risikodiskurse" you look back at 50 years of environmental politics. The examples of water protection, energy, dying forests (the Waldsterben) and genetic engineering all show one thing: the influence of the media on people's perception of environmental problems is strong. What influence do the media exercise today? Manuel Eisner: The media alone can not determine people's perception of environmental problems but they are a central factor. No modern environmental problem can be assessed by laymen if the media do not communicate the problem. Many studies have shown that non-specialists judge the danger of a problem by the extent of media coverage devoted to it – even though this is not always an accurate barometer of the scientific assessment of the given risk. Let's look at the example of acrylamide. Researchers had hardly finished confirming the presence of this harmful substance in some food products when the media launched into a veritable crusade and consumers began to fear that they would get cancer from eating potato crisps and chips . Hardly anyone talks about other harmful substances that occur naturally in our food products – a skewered perception? Eisner: Absolutely. Increased interest in the issue of acrylamide since April 2002 is a very good example of the momentum society develops when it comes to dealing with risk. In a totally unreasoned manner, based on media reports of a single study, a climate of fear spreads, which then mobilises science and political representatives. This has nothing to do with a realistic assessment of relative risk. Vaccination is another example. The stabiliser thimerosal, an organic mercury compound, is no longer added as a matter of course to today's vaccines. It was feared that it might cause harm. If one investigates, one finds – astonishingly – that a tin of tuna contains up to six times more mercury than a vaccine used to – and nobody protests. Why is perception so unequal? Eisner: One certain result from social science research on risk clearly shows that we judge risks that we enter into voluntarily as far lower than risks that are imposed on us. We can easily choose not to eat tuna fish. Vaccines, on the other hand, are forced on children and parents feel responsible for their decision. Of course, there is nothing to say that mercury in tuna could not become a risk issue tomorrow.
In his book "Die Panik-Macher" the social statistician, Walter Krämer, writes about a "perception problem", and wrong weightings of risk that shape our daily lives. You have investigated psychological perception. Why aren't we capable of weighing risk objectively in many fields? Eisner: An anthropological component is naturally present here. We don't possess an organ that can weigh modern risk in a sensory way. And our fears are the manifestation of very strong emotional and societal phenomena that can only be indirectly influenced by scientific calculations of probability. At the same time it has to be said that there is no such thing as a totally objective assessment of risk. Lots of risk scenarios are menacing because they could happen at some point. How probable a future risk is and whether we are prepared to take that risk is not a question that science can answer alone.
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Issues dealing with the environment seem to be most to the fore. The end of the world would have happened many times over if forecasts from Greenpeace & Co. had proven accurate. But nobody gets indignant about all the erroneous predictions. Why not? Eisner: Many forecasts of catastrophes have the beneficial effect of leading to decisive political action. Who knows what level of harmful substances we would find in the air, water and earth had it not been for the environmental movement? Whether it suits us or not, new issues only become politically relevant when they are presented as massively threatening. And naturally, we can more readily accept a catastrophe that doesn't come to pass than declarations of security that lead us into a catastrophe. Do we need a "daily catastrophe"? Eisner: Our studies show that every catastrophe is an major, unparalleled event that might not be particularly interesting when looked at from a scientific point of view. Nevertheless, a catastrophe serves society as a memorial for a problem, thereby shaping perception.
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