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Published: 20.11.2003, 06:00
Modified: 19.11.2003, 17:43
Discourse on risk: Manuel Eisner on communicating risk
"Catastrophes are major, unparalleled events"

"Many forecasts of catastrophes have the beneficial effect of leading to decisive political action," says sociologist Manuel Eisner. For all that they can also lead to excessive fears. The former ETH researcher talks to ETH Life.

Interview: Michael Breu

In your book "Risikodiskurse" you look back at 50 years of environmental politics. The examples of water protection, energy, dying forests (the Waldsterben) and genetic engineering all show one thing: the influence of the media on people's perception of environmental problems is strong. What influence do the media exercise today?

Manuel Eisner: The media alone can not determine people's perception of environmental problems but they are a central factor. No modern environmental problem can be assessed by laymen if the media do not communicate the problem. Many studies have shown that non-specialists judge the danger of a problem by the extent of media coverage devoted to it – even though this is not always an accurate barometer of the scientific assessment of the given risk.

Let's look at the example of acrylamide. Researchers had hardly finished confirming the presence of this harmful substance in some food products when the media launched into a veritable crusade and consumers began to fear that they would get cancer from eating potato crisps and chips . Hardly anyone talks about other harmful substances that occur naturally in our food products – a skewered perception?

Eisner: Absolutely. Increased interest in the issue of acrylamide since April 2002 is a very good example of the momentum society develops when it comes to dealing with risk. In a totally unreasoned manner, based on media reports of a single study, a climate of fear spreads, which then mobilises science and political representatives. This has nothing to do with a realistic assessment of relative risk.

Vaccination is another example. The stabiliser thimerosal, an organic mercury compound, is no longer added as a matter of course to today's vaccines. It was feared that it might cause harm. If one investigates, one finds – astonishingly – that a tin of tuna contains up to six times more mercury than a vaccine used to – and nobody protests. Why is perception so unequal?

Eisner: One certain result from social science research on risk clearly shows that we judge risks that we enter into voluntarily as far lower than risks that are imposed on us. We can easily choose not to eat tuna fish. Vaccines, on the other hand, are forced on children and parents feel responsible for their decision. Of course, there is nothing to say that mercury in tuna could not become a risk issue tomorrow.

DDT production of the multinational pharmaceutical company Geigy in Basle in 1941. Initially praised, later criticised, today some researchers are calling for a re-evaluation of DDT. Its use as an insecticide is no longer allowed in most countries. Archive picture: Novartis large

In his book "Die Panik-Macher" the social statistician, Walter Krämer, writes about a "perception problem", and wrong weightings of risk that shape our daily lives. You have investigated psychological perception. Why aren't we capable of weighing risk objectively in many fields?

Eisner: An anthropological component is naturally present here. We don't possess an organ that can weigh modern risk in a sensory way. And our fears are the manifestation of very strong emotional and societal phenomena that can only be indirectly influenced by scientific calculations of probability. At the same time it has to be said that there is no such thing as a totally objective assessment of risk. Lots of risk scenarios are menacing because they could happen at some point. How probable a future risk is and whether we are prepared to take that risk is not a question that science can answer alone.


Biography: Manuel Eisner

Manuel Eisner, born on 7th May 1959, studied history, sociology and social psychology in Zurich and London. From 1996 until 2002 he was assistant professor at ETH Zurich. At present he is acting director and reader at the Institute of Criminology at Cambridge University.




On 25th April 1986 the fourth reactor at the nuclear power plant in Chernobyl exploded. The meltdown shaped the ensuing debate and politics on risk.

Issues dealing with the environment seem to be most to the fore. The end of the world would have happened many times over if forecasts from Greenpeace & Co. had proven accurate. But nobody gets indignant about all the erroneous predictions. Why not?

Eisner: Many forecasts of catastrophes have the beneficial effect of leading to decisive political action. Who knows what level of harmful substances we would find in the air, water and earth had it not been for the environmental movement? Whether it suits us or not, new issues only become politically relevant when they are presented as massively threatening. And naturally, we can more readily accept a catastrophe that doesn't come to pass than declarations of security that lead us into a catastrophe.

Do we need a "daily catastrophe"?

Eisner: Our studies show that every catastrophe is an major, unparalleled event that might not be particularly interesting when looked at from a scientific point of view. Nevertheless, a catastrophe serves society as a memorial for a problem, thereby shaping perception.


"Discourse on risk"

(mib) Pollution of the oceans, lakes and rivers, the Waldsterben, Chernobyl and genetic engineering: in the perception of western industrialised nations complex problems are reduced to a simple denominator, to the destruction of the natural state of things. "When society actually perceives the existence of problems then there are real consequences in the form of the political, mass median, legal or scientific reactions to the problems," write Manuel Eisner, Nicole Graf and Peter Moser in their recently published "Risikodiskurse". The authors are less interested in the question of whether problems really exist than investigating "the dynamics of public debate on problems of the environment and risk in Switzerland." The publication was funded by the relevant part of the Swiss National Science Foundation’s programme, "Switzerland's future", and ETH Zurich.

The basic data for the authors' study were taken from the archives of a number of daily newspapers (the Zurich region's "Tages-Anzeigers", the "Neuen Zürcher Zeitung" and the national tabloid "Blick") from 1958 to 1998. The lengths of texts of certain keywords was analysed , the allotted picture material, the number of column inches devoted to the issue and its positioning in the paper. Data thus collected was then assigned to "actors" (problem promoters, adversaries or specialists), to interpretation patterns (definition of the problem, cause and effect, value orientation, rhetoric) as well as to the pertinent processes. The results show that "problems go through several stages in a career." These stages include protest, issue in the mass media, mass media policy cycles, and they can be assigned to one of four different temporal phases – latency, escalation, culmination and normalisation phases.

"Our case studies show that the initial constellation of promoters can be extremely diverse and that actors from the political establishment play a very central role", write the authors. The debate on water pollution (1958-1972) was shaped by scientists at the Swiss Union for Water Protection (Schweizerischen Vereinigung für Gewässerschutz) and representatives from Eawag, the Swiss Federal Institute for Environmental Science and Technology ; discussion on nuclear energy commenced in the form of citizens’ initiatives (1965-1985); the Waldsterben were brought to the notice of society at large by forest officers (1983-1990); the catastrophe at Chernobyl was taken up from left-green political factions and environmental organisations (1986-1990) and the debate on genetic engineering from activists within the Swiss Working Group on Genetic Engineering (since the mid 1980s). "It is striking that a successful "putting-on-the-agenda" of problems that touch upon environment and risk are usually mobilised at local and national levels simultaneously. The local level serves to make the problem visible, whether it is the location of a trial field of genetically modified maize , the location of dying fish or the forest in one's own community, whose desolate state is made clear during a guided tour with the local forester," they explain. The national level, on the other hand, provides an interpretation framework that can be generalised with regard to the problem, as well as an identity that endures even after an unparalleled event has passed. Of "overwhelming importance" is whether scientists act as problem promoters (as in the water protection debate) or as adversaries (as in the debate on genetic engineering).

In their publication the authors conclude: "In all five case studies, the use of catastrophe rhetoric is very striking. The discourse on the environment seems to live from this rhetoric, although the resonance from the public is not always commensurate." Between 1970 and 1973, when the threat of an ecological collapse became fixed in people's minds for the first time, and again between 1984 and 1987, when the environment debate reached its zenith, "the catastrophe rhetoric was able to develop the greatest everyday plausibility that it has ever had before or since." In this phase the way the media report of the issue was decisive. Scientists tend to be more diffident in their formulation: "Each catastrophe, protest or conflict has very high media value because its dramaturgy lends itself to the principles of news communication (novelty, conflict, damage)."




References:
Manuel Eisner, Nicole Graf, Peter Moser: „Risikodiskurse. Die Dynamik öffentlicher Debatten über Umwelt- und Risikoprobleme in der Schweiz“, Seismo Verlag, Zürich 2003: www.seismoverlag.ch/
Walter Krämer, Gerald Mackenthun: „Die Panik-Macher“, Piper Verlag, München 2001: www.piper.de/



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