Awareness concerning the environment and resources has grown considerably over the past century. The recognition of the inherent potential for conflict in this area, does not just focus on wars over oil. It also involves non-escalated, but destabilizing conflicts over water and climate change. Against this background the Federal Department for Defence, Civil Protection and Sports (DDPS) mandated the Center for Security Studies at ETH Zurich to carry out a study (1). According to Simon Mason, one of the co-authors, the study investigates the relevance of developments in the areas of environment and resources as regards Switzerland's security. This study was entitled "Environmental and Resource Trends 2000–2030: Implications for Swiss Security Policy". It was partially based on existing literature and was published last year, in print and on-line, and a condensed version appeared recently in the 2005 Bulletin on Swiss Security Policy (2).

Increasing concentration of oil production

The ETH scientists divided their work into three steps. In the first, they attempted to identify trends until 2030. For oil, for example, they ascertained that the global economy will be increasingly dependent on the reserves of oil and natural gas from the Middle East and Russia. Even though, according to Mason, Libya and Algeria cover almost 90 per cent of our crude oil requirements today, owing to the existing strong international and economical interdependence, Switzerland's future interests would be served by closely following developments in the Middle East and Russia. As a lucrative non-renewable resource, like diamonds or the raw mineral coltan, tensions surrounding mineral oil can easily lead to armed conflicts.

The authors of the study estimate that "water" does not pose a warlike threat, despite its increasing importance. Because water is of paramount importance for global food production, it is estimated that the global market for "virtual water" (= water in the form of food) will grow to about 450 billion US dollars in the year 2025. Water thus will become a driving economic force, and water scarce countries will face increasing security problems, especially if they do not have the economic resources to import food. Concerning other trends, the authors identify the climate as a factor that is security relevant, but say that major effects of the forecasted climate change are not expected until after 2030.

Abuse of financial centres poses a threat

After setting out the inventory of trends, in a second step the researchers turned their attention to determining the consequences for Switzerland's security. They found no problems with regard to food security, as Switzerland imports most of its food from the EU area. The greatest potential for uncertainty is identified by Mason and his co-author Adrian Müller in the destabilisation outside Switzerland, yet with indirect effects on Switzerland. The following possible consequences were identified: terrorism, the smuggling of and trade of human beings, the spread of illnesses in areas without a functioning government, drugs and organised crime. For Switzerland, the main danger related to organized crime lies in the potential misuse of its role as a global financial centre. From the point of view of terrorists Switzerland could be seen as an attractive target because of its international interdependence. The risk of an attack is considered possible but not acute.

Building of an irrigation canal in Ethiopia to help fight chronic malnourishment. Within the framework of the NCCR North-South programme, scientists from the ETH Center for Security Studies, together with Swisspeace, investigate how the water in the Nile basin can be used sustainably (Picture: Eva Ludi). large

In the final step the ETH researchers recommend that Switzerland should undertake greater domestic efforts aimed at a more sustainable consumerism. Furthermore, they recommend greater participation in international peacekeeping measures, which of course have to be internationally co-ordinated. In principle, a change must be accomplished in the "minds of the population, from the old picture of defence of the country within Europe to regional co-operation with Europe".

Switzerland: the odd one out

Security policy today, according to the ETH scientists, can only be understood against the background of an increasing global economic and political interdependence. As far as foreign policy is concerned, for example, they see a considerable potential for peacebuilding by introducing more transparency into the management of resources, whether by intergovernmental treaties or with private economic initiatives. The latter include so-called labelling initiatives, like that of "Max Havelaar". At a national level, Mason finds the "Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative“ (EITI) exemplary. This was launched by the British Prime Minister Tony Blair at the global summit for sustainable development in Johannesburg in 2002. The idea behind this is very simple, says Mason. Companies in the extractive industries (oil, gas, mining) declare how much they pay governments, or authorities connected to governments, for the right to exploit raw materials. Host governments in their turn publish what they receive in the form of revenues from the mining companies. In this way accountability is made possible, to a certain extent preventing misuse of revenues, corruption and therefore conflict. Among other things it would then become visible how much profit "Shell", for example, makes from its oil production in Nigeria. In 2003, NIgeria was one of the first countries to take the lead in the EITI. During the research they carried out for the study, the scientists learned that Switzerland has not yet become a member of the EITI Initiative.

Switzerland need not fear supply problems in the next 30 years. The cumulative effect of destabilisation abroad on Switzerland is a more immanent problem. Even if it is not dramatic, as Mason states, it is important to be aware of these trends and essential for Switzerland to place stronger emphasis on policies aimed at sustainability - for the long term benefit of Swiss security.